This alert expired on 4 July 2026 at 22:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 55 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 18 May 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 4 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 5:51PM EDT until July 4 at 6:45PM EDT by NWS State College PA
An estimated 42,354 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 18 May 2026
- May 18, 2026 · score 22 · 9.8 km
- July 4, 2026 · score 34 · 10.9 km
- June 18, 2026 · score 34 · 13.9 km
How we know
Confirmed by 5 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100, at 87 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 87% |
| Coordinates | 39.1188, -78.6326 |
| Nearest City | Winchester (42 km) |
| Population Exposed | 42.4K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-04T21:51:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d12b296ea5b2c9880407ebe512957536 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Blair, PA; Cambria, PA; Centre, PA; Clearfield, PA; Huntingdon, PA; Frederick, MD; Washington, MD; Frederick, VA; Loudoun, VA; Berkeley, WV; Jefferson, WV; Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; King George, VA; Orange, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA and 11 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 5:51PM EDT until July 4 at 6:45PM EDT by NWS State College PA |
| Expires | 2026-07-04T18:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS State College PA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 15 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d12b296ea5b2c9880407ebe512957536b90786cc.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5773bf30a487cfcf35a96548e6343f5a7f547d77.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d9a496ee0cc15e093751d3815c2a1d604c75939c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7193925cbcc1e02c1d37dbe818f7c6e76e02acdc.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.cfbbb37b4126baecf1eb2dfd1cee647ae46c1033.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1fde092403c28f887d08e36ac42a7cc31b47ec8c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.63b79cb85188d4dbb210ce668777f15d6bb47029.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5e4c66af247bd98fe1f17e932a39cb6ab3485f8d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.706bd666ba72c33cb936b667785fbc1358cb0897.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e6a11b829cf85a07bf87545083ff5d04a1787439.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5854bd430f1143138719038d219306a45df713df.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6ac4de5bb462456e4cc38e73b516b2e7191031d0.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.36339053bef2b81b3005864276c0667df9415221.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.625d4d73905d2aa2eeca7411ef2b5023a6903ede.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d80b6ca6cfa15a4548b17a774734009907babf39.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | Stanley |
| Iem County | Page |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | Large tree limbs fell onto power lines in the 200 block of Honeyville Avenue. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_39.100_-78.960_1783196640000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783196640000,"latitude":39.1,"longitude":-78.96},{"id":"iem_D_38.570_-78.760_1783190700000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783190700000,"latitude":38.57,"longitude":-78.76},{"id":"iem_D_39.090_-79.060_1783196280000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783196280000,"latitude":39.09,"longitude":-79.06},{"id":"iem_D_38.570_-78.510_1783195800000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783195800000,"latitude":38.57,"longitude":-78.51}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 34/100 (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.